艾維斯的撿橘子理論

2010-2-15 

今天在大賣場裡閒晃
突然發現 想到一個理論
這個理論叫 "撿橘子理論"

理論的故事是這樣的

在市場有一個賣橘子的攤販
市場裡 人來人往
客戶甲來到了橘子攤販前

東挑西撿的 最後他撿了他覺得最好的橘子然後高興的走了
後來 乙也到了橘子攤販前 
乙也東挑西撿的 最後他撿了他覺得最好的橘子高興的走了
然後 丙也到了
丙也撿了他覺得最好的橘子高興的走了
丁也到了撿了他覺得好的橘子高興的走了

賣橘子攤販上的橘子愈來愈少
到最後橘子剩下沒多少 但是還是有人來東挑西撿的
花了一些功夫 認真的挑他最愛的橘子
最後有可能橘子全部都賣完了
或者也有可能剩非常少非常少的幾顆根本就賣不出去
不過.. 所有的客人都滿意了
販商也滿意了



我們來想想看
第一個來挑橘子的人是不是很幸運?
因為他的樣本最多 所以他挑到好橘子的機會也多
同樣的 第二到一定數量(2~n) 的客戶
他們都擁有幾乎跟第一個客戶一樣多的機會挑到好橘子
然後 接下的客人 可能就機會愈來愈不好

但是 很奇怪的 很晚才到的客人
他們竟然也是很認真的在撿橘子
他們也以為他們撿到了好橘子 ?
 
這就是人 當局者迷 
現實生活就是這樣 我們一直重複在做這種工而不自知

找男女朋友, 另一半,  公司找人... 這些是很容易理解的
但是你若以為這種現實就只有在這些地方出現 那你就大錯特錯了
若是別人講一種 你才知道一種 那你就要自省吾身 深自檢討了

最淺顯易懂的就是  有人做了 iPad 你明明知道最大餅就是一開始的客人
但你還是奮不顧身的跳下去做你的 iPad 
最後殺成紅海 甚至不但沒賺 而且還大賠  (例如你們台灣的 LCD)


聰明的人不會跟你講這種現實的東西
他們怕你知道
畢竟這世界還是需要大量的底層來做一些底層工作

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It came to me when I walked in supermarket today

What's it?
It's a weird theory,
and it is called "picking oranges theory"

This is the story of the theory 

In the market, there is a street vendor selling oranges
Bustling market
Customer A came to the orange vendor
She took some time to pick oranges of which she felt the better and satisfied.
Finally customer A had what she whanted and left with pleased.

Later,
Customer B came to the former orange vendors.
Customer B also took some time picking oranges that she felt satisfied.
And finally customer B left

And then, the same,
it came customer C and customer D.
Customer C and D also picked up the best oranges they felt satisfied and left.

With oranges fewer and fewer,
Later people still spent their time to choose oranges that they felt satisfied.
Note that later people spent more time to pick oranges that satisfied themself.

Finally, oranges may be all sold out,
or there might be very few oranges left,
however all customers were satisfied, and vendor was also satisfied.

Don't you think it weird? This world is strange.
Let's think about it, is the first customer very lucky?
First customer has the maximun number of oranges for choices.
So he may have a good chance to have better oranges.
Similar to the second customer and a certain number of earlier customers,
They have almost as much chance with the first customer.
However, the later customers can only pick oranges from the rest that former customers left. 
They have less opportunities to get good oranges, but they
still turned out to be very careful in picking oranges.

Why?
Do they think they are early people?
Or they really don't know that oranges on the table are much less than before?
They also thought that oranges they picked are good?

This is human being, this is reality.
In this reality world, we have been doing such kinds of work repeatedly without knowing ourself.

Smart people will not tell you what this reality world is.
They are afraid of you knowing this.
Because this world still needs people to do works underlying.